Showing posts with label United States dollar. Show all posts
Showing posts with label United States dollar. Show all posts

Saturday, September 24, 2011

Foreign exchange reserves

Map of countries by foreign currency reserves ...Image via Wikipedia
Foreign exchange reserves (also called Forex reserves or FX reserves) in a strict sense are only the foreign currency deposits and bonds held by central banks and monetary authorities. However, the term in popular usage commonly includes foreign exchange and gold, Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) and International Monetary Fund (IMF) reserve positions. This broader figure is more readily available, but it is more accurately termed official international reserves or international reserves. These are assets of the central bank held in different reserve currencies, mostly the US dollar, and to a lesser extent the euro, the UK pound, and the Japanese yen, and used to back its liabilities, e.g., the local currency issued, and the various bank reserves deposited with the central bank, by the government or financial institutions.
Contents [hide]
1 History
2 Purpose
2.1 Changes in reserves
3 Costs, benefits, and criticisms
4 Excess reserves
5 List of countries by foreign exchange reserves
6 See also
7 References
8 External links
8.1 Source
8.2 Articles
8.3 Speeches
[edit]History

Official international reserves, the means of official international payments, formerly consisted only of gold, and occasionally silver. But under the Bretton Woods system, the US dollar functioned as a reserve currency, so it too became part of a nation's official international reserve assets. From 1944-1968, the US dollar was convertible into gold through the Federal Reserve System, but after 1968 only central banks could convert dollars into gold from official gold reserves, and after 1973 no individual or institution could convert US dollars into gold from official gold reserves. Since 1973, no major currencies have been convertible into gold from official gold reserves. Individuals and institutions must now buy gold in private markets, just like other commodities. Even though US dollars and other currencies are no longer convertible into gold from official gold reserves, they still can function as official international reserves.
[edit]Purpose

In a flexible exchange rate system, official international reserve assets allow a central bank to purchase the domestic currency, which is considered a liability for the central bank (since it prints the money or fiat currency as IOUs). This action can stabilize the value of the domestic currency.[citation needed]
Central banks throughout the world have sometimes cooperated in buying and selling official international reserves to attempt to influence exchange rates. This coordinated strategy was used to replace pound sterling with US dollar as the world reference currency during the 20th century.[1] The lack of such international cooperation is also a big concern for the replacement of US Dollar in this role of reference currency in foreign exchange reserves.[2]
[edit]Changes in reserves
The quantity of foreign exchange reserves can change as a central bank implements monetary policy.[3] A central bank that implements a fixed exchange rate policy may face a situation where supply and demand would tend to push the value of the currency lower or higher (an increase in demand for the currency would tend to push its value higher, and a decrease lower). In a flexible exchange rate regime, these operations occur automatically, with the central bank clearing any excess demand or supply by purchasing or selling the foreign currency. Mixed exchange rate regimes ('dirty floats', target bands or similar variations) may require the use of foreign exchange operations (sterilized or unsterilized[clarification needed]) to maintain the targeted exchange rate within the prescribed limits .
Foreign exchange operations that are unsterilized will cause an expansion or contraction in the amount of domestic currency in circulation, and hence directly affect monetary policy and inflation: An exchange rate target cannot be independent of an inflation target. Countries that do not target a specific exchange rate are said to have a floating exchange rate, and allow the market to set the exchange rate; for countries with floating exchange rates, other instruments of monetary policy are generally preferred and they may limit the type and amount of foreign exchange interventions. Even those central banks that strictly limit foreign exchange interventions, however, often recognize that currency markets can be volatile and may intervene to counter disruptive short-term movements.
To maintain the same exchange rate if there is increased demand, the central bank can issue more of the domestic currency and purchase the foreign currency, which will increase the sum of foreign reserves. In this case, the currency's value is being held down; since (if there is no sterilization) the domestic money supply is increasing (money is being 'printed'), this may provoke domestic inflation (the value of the domestic currency falls relative to the value of goods and services).
Since the amount of foreign reserves available to defend a weak currency (a currency in low demand) is limited, a foreign exchange crisis or devaluation could be the end result. For a currency in very high and rising demand, foreign exchange reserves can theoretically be continuously accumulated, although eventually the increased domestic money supply will result in inflation and reduce the demand for the domestic currency (as its value relative to goods and services falls). In practice, some central banks, through open market operations aimed at preventing their currency from appreciating, can at the same time build substantial reserves.
In practice, few central banks or currency regimes operate on such a simplistic level, and numerous other factors (domestic demand, production and productivity, imports and exports, relative prices of goods and services, etc) will affect the eventual outcome. As certain impacts (such as inflation) can take many months or even years to become evident, changes in foreign reserves and currency values in the short term may be quite large as different markets react to imperfect data.
[edit]Costs, benefits, and criticisms

Large reserves of foreign currency allow a government to manipulate exchange rates - usually to stabilize the foreign exchange rates to provide a more favorable economic environment. In theory the manipulation of foreign currency exchange rates can provide the stability that a gold standard provides, but in practice this has not been the case. Also, the greater a country's foreign reserves, the better position it is in to defend itself from speculative attacks on the domestic currency.
There are costs in maintaining large currency reserves. Fluctuations in exchange markets result in gains and losses in the purchasing power of reserves. Even in the absence of a currency crisis, fluctuations can result in huge losses. For example, China holds huge U.S. dollar-denominated assets, but if the U.S. dollar weakens on the exchange markets, the decline results in a relative loss of wealth for China. In addition to fluctuations in exchange rates, the purchasing power of fiat money decreases constantly due to devaluation through inflation. Therefore, a central bank must continually increase the amount of its reserves to maintain the same power to manipulate exchange rates. Reserves of foreign currency provide a small return in interest. However, this may be less than the reduction in purchasing power of that currency over the same period of time due to inflation, effectively resulting in a negative return known as the "quasi-fiscal cost". In addition, large currency reserves could have been invested in higher yielding assets.
[edit]Excess reserves

Foreign exchange reserves are important indicators of ability to repay foreign debt and for currency defense, and are used to determine credit ratings of nations, however, other government funds that are counted as liquid assets that can be applied to liabilities in times of crisis include stabilization funds, otherwise known as sovereign wealth funds. If those were included, Norway, Singapore and Persian Gulf States would rank higher on these lists, and United Arab Emirates' $1.3 trillion Abu Dhabi Investment Authority would be second after China. Apart from high foreign exchange reserves, Singapore also has significant government and sovereign wealth funds including Temasek Holdings, valued in excess of $145 billion and Government of Singapore Investment Corporation, valued in excess of $330 billion. India is also planning to create its own investment firm from its foreign exchange reserves.
On May 2011, an estimated that Asia has $3.5 trillion of foreign reserves or is around two-thirds of the world's reserves and a stark contrast to the indebtedness in many developed Western economies.[4]
[edit]List of countries by foreign exchange reserves

See also: List of countries by foreign exchange reserves


Reserves of SDR, forex and gold in 2006
The following is a list of the top 20 largest countries by foreign exchange reserves:
The following is a list of inter-governmental free-trade associations and supranational organizations.
Rank Country Billion USD (end of month)
1 People's Republic of China $ 3,197 (Jun 2011)[5]
2 Japan $ 1,138 (Jun 2011)[6]
3 Russia $ 531 (Jul 2011)[7]
4 Saudi Arabia $ 497 (Jun 2011)[8]
5 Republic of China (Taiwan) $ 400 (Jun 2011)[9]
6 Brazil $ 352 (Aug 2011)[10]
7 India $ 318 (Aug 27 2011)[11]
8 South Korea $ 311 (Jul 2011)[12]
9 Switzerland $ 289 (May 2011)[13]
10 Hong Kong $ 277 (Jun 2011)[14]
11 Singapore $ 249 (Jul 2011)[15]
12 Germany $ 231 (Jun 2011)[13]
13 Thailand $ 186 (Jul 2011)[16]
14 France $ 182 (May 2011)[13]
15 Italy $ 170 (May 2011)[13]
16 Algeria $ 155 (Dec 2010)[17]
17 United States $ 143 (Jul 2011)[13]
18 Mexico $ 136 (Aug 2011)[18]
19 Malaysia $ 134 (Jun 2011)[19]
20 Indonesia $ 122 (Jul 2011)[20]
Rank Country Billion USD (end of month)
- European Economic Area $ 1 416 (Feb 2011)
- European Union $ 1 356 (Feb 2011)
- Eurozone $ 840 (Jun 2011)[21]
These few holders account for more than 60% of total world foreign currency reserves. The adequacy of the foreign exchange reserves is more often expressed not as an absolute level, but as a percentage of short-term foreign debt, money supply, or average monthly imports.
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Intermarket Correlations

Before we detail the relationship between the com-dolls and gold, let's first note that the U.S. dollar and gold don't quite mesh very well.

Usually, when the dollar moves up, the gold falls and vice-versa.

The traditional logic here is that during times of economic unrest, investors tend to dump the greenback in favor of gold.

Unlike other assets, gold maintains its intrinsic value or rather, it's natural shine!

Nowadays, the inverse relationship between the Greenback and gold still remains although the dynamics behind it have somewhat changed.

Because of the dollar's safe haven appeal, whenever there is economic trouble in the U.S. or across the globe, investors more often than not run back to the Greenback.

The reverse happens when there are signs of growth.

Take a look at this awesome chart:



Currently, Australia is the third biggest gold-digger... we mean, gold producer in the world, sailing out about $5 billion worth of the yellow treasure every year!

Historically, AUD/USD has had a whopping 80% correlation to the price of gold!




Not convinced? Here's another one:



Across the seven seas, Switzerland's currency, the Swiss franc, also has a strong link with gold. Using the dollar as base currency, the USD/CHF usually climbs when the price of gold slides.

Conversely, the pair dips when the price of gold goes up. Unlike the Australian dollar, the reason why the Swiss franc moves along with gold is because more than 25% of Switzerland's money is backed by gold reserves.

Isn't that awesome?

The relationship between gold and major currencies is just O




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Currency Crosses

A "currency cross pair", also known as "cross-currency pair" or simply as a "cross", is a pair of currencies that doesn't involve the U.S. dollar.

Back in the ancient days, if someone wanted to change currencies, they would first have to convert their currencies into U.S. dollars, and only then could they convert their dollars into the currency they desired.



For example, if a person wanted to change their U.K. sterling into Japanese yen, they would first have to convert their sterling into U.S. dollars, and then convert these dollars into yen.

With the invention of currency crosses, individuals can now bypass the process of converting their currencies into US dollars and simply convert it directly into their desired currency. Some examples of crosses include: GBP/JPY, EUR/JPY, EUR/CHF, and EUR/GBP.

Calculating Cross Rates



Warning: This part is a little boring...unless you like numbers. It's not difficult but it can be kind of dry. The good news is that this section really isn't necessary anymore since most broker platforms already calculate cross rates for you.

However, if you are the type that likes to know how everything works, then this section is for you! And besides, it's always good to know how things work right? In this section, we will show you how to calculate the bid (buying price) and ask (selling price) of a currency cross.

Let's say we want to find the bid/ask price for GBP/JPY. The first thing we would do is look at the bid/ask price for both GBP/USD and USD/JPY.

Why these 2 pairs?

Because both of them have the U.S. dollar as their common denominator.

These 2 pairs are called the "legs" of GBP/JPY because they are the U.S. dollar pairs associated with it.

Now let's say we find the following bid/ask prices:

GBP/USD: 1.5630 (bid) / 1.5635 (ask)

USD/JPY: 89.38 (bid) / 89.43 (ask)





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How You Make Money in Forex

n the forex market, you buy or sell currencies.

Placing a trade in the foreign exchange market is simple: the mechanics of a trade are very similar to those found in other markets (like the stock market), so if you have any experience in trading, you should be able to pick it up pretty quickly.

The object of forex trading is to exchange one currency for another in the expectation that the price will change, so that the currency you bought will increase in value compared to the one you sold.

Example:

Trader's Action EUR USD
You purchase 10,000 euros at the EUR/USD exchange rate of 1.1800 +10,000 -11,800
Two weeks later, you exchange your 10,000 euros back into U.S. dollar at the exchange rate of 1.2500 -10,000 +12,500**
You earn a profit of $700 0 +700
*EUR 10,000 x 1.18 = US $11,800

** EUR 10,000 x 1.25 = US $12,500


An exchange rate is simply the ratio of one currency valued against another currency. For example, the USD/CHF exchange rate indicates how many U.S. dollars can purchase one Swiss franc, or how many Swiss francs you need to buy one U.S. dollar.

How to Read a Forex Quote

Currencies are always quoted in pairs, such as GBP/USD or USD/JPY. The reason they are quoted in pairs is because in every foreign exchange transaction, you are simultaneously buying one currency and selling another. Here is an example of a foreign exchange rate for the British pound versus the U.S. dollar:



The first listed currency to the left of the slash ("/") is known as the base currency (in this example, the British pound), while the second one on the right is called the counter or quote currency (in this example, the U.S. dollar).

When buying, the exchange rate tells you how much you have to pay in units of the quote currency to buy one unit of the base currency. In the example above, you have to pay 1.51258 U.S. dollars to buy 1 British pound.

When selling, the exchange rate tells you how many units of the quote currency you get for selling one unit of the base currency. In the example above, you will receive 1.51258 U.S. dollars when you sell 1 British pound.

The base currency is the "basis" for the buy or the sell. If you buy EUR/USD this simply means that you are buying the base currency and simultaneously selling the quote currency. In caveman talk, "buy EUR, sell USD."

You would buy the pair if you believe the base currency will appreciate (gain value) relative to the quote currency. You would sell the pair if you think the base currency will depreciate (lose value) relative to the quote currency.




Long/Short

First, you should determine whether you want to buy or sell.

If you want to buy (which actually means buy the base currency and sell the quote currency), you want the base currency to rise in value and then you would sell it back at a higher price. In trader's talk, this is called "going long" or taking a "long position." Just remember: long = buy.

If you want to sell (which actually means sell the base currency and buy the quote currency), you want the base currency to fall in value and then you would buy it back at a lower price. This is called "going short" or taking a "short position". Just remember: short = sell.



"I'm long AND short."
Bid/Ask


"How come I keep getting quoted with two prices?"

All forex quotes are quoted with two prices: the bid and ask. For the most part, the bid is lower than the ask price.

The bid is the price at which your broker is willing to buy the base currency in exchange for the quote currency. This means the bid is the best available price at which you (the trader) will sell to the market.

The ask is the price at which your broker will sell the base currency in exchange for the quote currency. This means the ask price is the best available price at which you will buy from the market. Another word for ask is the offer price.

The difference between the bid and the ask price is popularly known as the spread.

On the EUR/USD quote above, the bid price is 1.34568 and the ask price is 1.34588. Look at how this broker makes it so easy for you to trade away your money.

If you want to sell EUR, you click "Sell" and you will sell euros at 1.34568. If you want to buy EUR, you click "Buy" and you will buy euros at 1.34588.

Now let's take a look at some samples.





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What is Traded?

The simple answer is MONEY.

Because you're not buying anything physical, this kind of trading can be confusing.

Think of buying a currency as buying a share in a particular country, kinda like buying stocks of a company. The price of the currency is a direct reflection of what the market thinks about the current and future health of the Japanese economy.

When you buy, say, the Japanese yen, you are basically buying a "share" in the Japanese economy. You are betting that the Japanese economy is doing well, and will even get better as time goes. Once you sell those "shares" back to the market, hopefully, you will end up with a profit.

In general, the exchange rate of a currency versus other currencies is a reflection of the condition of that country's economy, compared to other countries' economies.

By the time you graduate from this School of Pipsology, you'll be eager to start working with currencies.




Major Currencies

Symbol Country Currency Nickname
USD United States Dollar Buck
EUR Euro zone members Euro Fiber
JPY Japan Yen Yen
GBP Great Britain Pound Cable
CHF Switzerland Franc Swissy
CAD Canada Dollar Loonie
AUD Australia Dollar Aussie
NZD New Zealand Dollar Kiwi
Currency symbols always have three letters, where the first two letters identify the name of the country and the third letter identifies the name of that country's currency.

Take NZD for instance. NZ stands for New Zealand, while D stands for dollar. Easy enough, right?

The currencies included in the chart above are called the "majors" because they are the most widely traded ones.

We'd also like to let you know that "buck" isn't the only nickname for USD.

There's also: greenbacks, bones, benjis, benjamins, cheddar, paper, loot, scrilla, cheese, bread, moolah, dead presidents, and cash money.

So, if you wanted to say, "I have to go to work now."

Instead, you could say, "Yo, I gotta bounce! Gotta make them benjis son!"

Or if you wanted to say, "I have lots of money. Let's go to the shopping mall in the evening."

Instead, why not say, ""Yo, I gots mad scrilla! Let's go rock that mall later."

Did you also know that in Peru, a nickname for the U.S. dollar is Coco, which is a pet name for Jorge (George in Spanish), a reference to the portrait of George Washington on the $1 note?





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